The South African Weather Service (SAWS) issued a forecast on Monday, March 23, 2026. It covers typical autumn weather systems across the country this week. Residents in provinces like KwaZulu-Natal, Free State, Eastern Northern Cape, Mpumalanga, Gauteng, and Eastern Cape face the most impact. Showers, thundershowers, possible severe storms, and flooding risks start right away. These conditions matter now because they could disrupt daily life and travel.
This article covers confirmed facts from SAWS. Then it gives context on the weather systems. Next come the implications and risks. It ends with near-term developments through Sunday.
SAWS stated that typical autumn weather will dominate this week. “This consists of a surface trough over the western and central interior, with the Atlantic High extending its ridge over the southern and eastern parts of the country, resulting in isolated to scattered showers and thundershowers in places,” the service said.
Monday’s forecast calls for partly cloudy skies. Conditions will be cool to warm. Expect isolated to scattered showers and thundershowers. These will be widespread in KwaZulu-Natal.
A surface trough brings a low-pressure area over the western and central interior. This pulls in moist air. The Atlantic High sends a ridge over the southern and eastern parts. These systems work together to spark showers and thundershowers, SAWS explained. Autumn often sees this pattern in South Africa.
Low chances exist for severe thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday. The Eastern Northern Cape, Free State, KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga, and Gauteng face these risks.
Flooding from heavy downpours also has a low to medium chance in those same areas.
| Day | Risk Type | Provinces at Risk | Chance Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | Severe Thunderstorms | Eastern Northern Cape, Free State, KZN, Mpumalanga, Gauteng | Low |
| Monday | Flooding | Eastern Northern Cape, Free State, KZN, Mpumalanga, Gauteng | Low to Medium |
| Tuesday | Severe Thunderstorms | Eastern Northern Cape, Free State, KZN, Mpumalanga, Gauteng | Low |
| Tuesday | Flooding | Eastern Northern Cape, Free State, KZN, Mpumalanga, Gauteng | Low to Medium |
All details come from SAWS. Risks stay low overall but warrant caution in affected provinces.
Risks continue from Wednesday to Sunday. Flooding chances remain low to medium in key areas. Severe thunderstorms hold at low chances.
Here is the flooding outlook:
| Day | Provinces at Risk | Chance Level |
|---|---|---|
| Wednesday | Eastern Northern Cape, Free State, Eastern Cape | Low to Medium |
| Thursday | Eastern Northern Cape, Free State, KZN, Eastern Cape, Mpumalanga | Low to Medium |
| Friday | Eastern Northern Cape, Free State, KZN, Eastern Cape, Mpumalanga | Low to Medium |
| Saturday | Eastern Northern Cape, Free State, KZN, Eastern Cape, Mpumalanga | Low to Medium |
| Sunday | Free State, KZN, Eastern Cape, Mpumalanga | Low to Medium |
Severe thunderstorm chances follow a similar path:
| Day | Provinces at Risk | Chance Level |
|---|---|---|
| Wednesday | Eastern Northern Cape, Free State, Eastern Cape | Low |
| Thursday | Eastern Northern Cape, Free State, KZN, Eastern Cape, Mpumalanga | Low |
| Friday | Eastern Northern Cape, Free State, KZN, Eastern Cape, Mpumalanga | Low |
| Saturday | Eastern Northern Cape, Free State, KZN, Eastern Cape, Mpumalanga | Low |
| Sunday | Free State, KZN, Eastern Cape, Mpumalanga | Low |
SAWS data shows persistent risks in the eastern provinces. Check local alerts for changes.
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